Last Wednesday April 9th, officers attached to the Accountant General’s Department, the Department of Customs and Excise, the Inland Revenue Department and the Budget and Debt Department of the Ministry of Finance, commenced training on revenue estimation and forecasting.
The course is sponsored by the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) in conjunction with the Government of Grenada, and is aimed mainly at engaging participants, from CARTAC member countries, in a step-by-step process that ends up with officials preparing a revenue forecast using simple econometric models based on their country’s data.
The emphasis is on understanding the methodology through a combination of presentations and demonstrations by the trainers, and guided hands-on practice, with participants actually preparing the forecast using real country data. Having prepared such a forecast, the participants can then compare the ‘new’ forecast to the Budget 2008 forecast. Through this process, insights will be revealed on the issue of whether the new or old approach yield better results.
Participants are also being exposed to examining the sensitivity of the results to changes in the values of the economic variables, and reviewing the results to assess the resilience of the tax regime. They are also expected to investigate the presence of seasonal patterns in the quarterly profile of revenue collections to determine if it should be taken into account in the yearly liquidity management and financing plans.
This training is rather timely and will greatly benefit the departments, and the entire Government service, in more effective budgeting within the economic parameters in which we exist.
A report, documenting the results of the exercise, including the processes followed and issues encountered, will be prepared at the end of the workshop. The workshop ends on Wednesday April 16th.
